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Macroeconomic and Market Developments:  

• North American markets were stagnant this week. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index fell slightly 0.11%, while in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.27% and the S&P 500 Index inched up by 0.09%. 

 

• The Canadian Dollar increased this week, closing at 72.24 vs. 71.88 cents USD last week. 

 

• Oil prices spiked this week, with U.S. West Texas Crude closing at US$91.43 vs. US$83.47 last week. 

 

• The price of Gold dropped this week closing at US$4,479 vs. US$4,508 last week. 

 

• The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting, as policymakers balanced renewed U.S. tariff risks against persistent inflation pressures. With inflation at 3.0% in July and elevated energy prices adding upside risk, Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized price stability, while markets increasingly priced in the possibility of a rate hike before year-end. 

 

• North American labour markets diverged sharply in August, with the U.S. adding 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, while Canada shed 42,000 jobs versus forecasts for a 15,000 gain. U.S. unemployment held at 4.1%, wage growth remained firm at 3.1% year-over-year, and prior payroll figures were revised higher, reinforcing signs of economic resilience and increasing the potential for further Fed tightening. In Canada, unemployment remained at 6.4%, but wage growth slowed to 2.0%, pointing to a softer labour market amid renewed U.S. tariff uncertainty. 

 

• U.S. real GDP grew at an unrevised 1.5% annualized rate in Q2, while underlying economic activity was considerably stronger, with consumer spending, business investment and homebuilding—or “core” GDP—rising 4.2%. Corporate profits jumped 9.1% during the quarter and 22.8% year-over-year, while the GDP price index rose at a 6.4% annualized pace, highlighting continued inflation pressures despite modest headline growth. 

 

• U.S. personal income rose 0.4% in July, while consumer spending increased 0.2%, both exceeding expectations. However, inflation remained elevated, with headline PCE up 3.7% year-over-year and core PCE up 3.3% (Fed’s preferred inflation measure), keeping price pressures well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and supporting expectations that policymakers may raise the target rate at their next meeting on September 16^th. (Fed Fund futures as of today reflect a 58.6% probability of a rate hike - per CME Group) 

 

• Nvidia (NVDA) gained more than 2% Thursday after confirming its $12.9 billion acquisition of Hugging Face, the widely used open-weight AI platform. The deal marks another step in Nvidia’s push beyond chips toward becoming a full-stack AI platform, expanding its reach across AI model development, distribution, and deployment. 

 Weekly Diversion:   Check out this video: Had to Google this to be sure it wasn’t AI   Charts of the Week:  September has historically been a challenging month for equities (worst month on average), and investors entered the month with several concerns in focus, including higher interest rates, elevated oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations around Federal Reserve policy. However, while September’s reputation is generally negative, history shows that market performance during the month has depended heavily on the market’s condition heading into it.     Source: Bespoke Investment Group.  Since 1990, the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.72% decline in September, with positive returns only about half the time. However, the results look much better when the index was already positive year-to-date heading into the month. In years when the S&P 500 was up through August 31, September returns averaged a 0.39% gain, compared with an average decline of 3.24% when the index was down year-to-date entering September.  The same pattern can be seen at the sector level. Only three sectors — Communication Services, Health Care, and Energy — have averaged positive September returns overall. But when sectors were already positive year-to-date heading into September, the backdrop was much more constructive, with most sectors averaging gains. In contrast, when sectors were down year-to-date entering the month, all 11 sectors averaged negative September returns. This suggests that September weakness has historically been most severe when markets were already under pressure.  
Source: Bespoke Investment Group This year’s setup is also notable because the S&P 500 was not just positive heading into September — it was up more than 10% year-to-date. Since 1990, there have been 12 prior years when the index was up at least 10% through the end of August. In those years, September performance was much better than the long-term average, with the S&P 500 gaining an average of 0.93% and finishing positive two-thirds of the time.  
Source: Bespoke Investment Group Looking below the index level, September’s historical strength has also been concentrated in specific areas of the market. Among the 20 best-performing S&P 500 stocks in September that have been public for at least 10 years and have traded higher in September at least 70% of the time, eight come from the Industrials sector. Quanta Services and Caterpillar have led the group, each averaging September gains of at least 6%. This reinforces the idea that even in a historically weaker month, sector and stock-level leadership can still be meaningful.   
Source: Bespoke Investment Group On the weaker side, September has historically been more difficult for certain Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Financials names. Of the 20 S&P 500 stocks that have traded lower in September in at least eight of the last 10 years, 14 come from those three sectors. While this does not guarantee future performance, it highlights how seasonal weakness can be uneven across the market rather than applying equally to every sector or company.  For investors, the takeaway is that September deserves respect as a seasonally difficult month, but the starting point matters. When the S&P 500 entered September already down on the year, weakness tended to compound. When the market entered September with positive momentum, especially double-digit year-to-date gains, the month was historically much more manageable. With the S&P 500 entering this September from a position of strength, seasonal risks remain, but history suggests they may be less severe than the headline reputation implies.   Sources: First Trust, Statistics Canada, Bloomberg, Government of Canada, Yahoo Finance, Bespoke Investment Group, CME Group ©2026 Milestone Wealth Management Ltd. All rights reserved. DISCLAIMER: Investing in equities is not guaranteed, values change frequently, and past results are not necessarily an indicator of future performance. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses, or sales charges. Opinions and estimates are written as of the date of this report and may change without notice.  Any commentaries, reports or other content are provided for your information only and are not considered investment advice. Readers should not act on this information without first consulting Milestone, their investment advisor, tax advisor, financial planner, or lawyer. This communication is intended for Canadian residents only and does not constitute as an offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not allowed.
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